Irregular Times' Sales of Political Bumper Stickers, November 2004 - November 2005

Irregular Times reports on the geographic distribution of their Election 2008 bumper sticker sales (apparently only to Democrats) from November 2004 - November 2005:

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Daily Kos Releases the Tracking Vote Tally of Visitors

Kos refers to it as a poll that accurately represents the feelings of the "Daily Kos Community," but since people can be shuffled through via exhortations on one candidate's web site, it's really more of a vote that is open for gaming. Still, the ability to game the Daily Kos voting system is at least indicative of the ability of a candidate's followers to effectively mobilize, which has no small part to play in the fight to win an election.

So, with those caveats in mind, here are the results from the past five voting periods, to be read as percentages totaling down each column:


Nov Sept Aug July June

Clark 26 34 35 34 26
Feingold 19 19 16 10 10
Warner 14 4 3 5 5
Edwards 12 10 7 7 8
H. Clinton 6 8 9 10 10
No Freakin' Clue 6 6 9 13 17
Richardson 5 3 4 4 4
Other 2 3 4 4 7
Kerry 2 2 1 2 2
Biden 1 3 3 3 3
Bayh 1 1 1 2 2
Vilsack 0 0 0 0 0


How do you interpret these results?

Diageo/Hotline: Worthless Poll on Republican Presidential Candidates

Today, Financial Dynamics released a poll it conducted from November 11 to November 15 regarding Republican aspirants to the presidency in 2008. These are the results:

"Suppose the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you support if the candidates were [see below]?" If "All": "If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?" Names rotated. N=326 Republican voters, MoE ± 5.4%.

Rudy Giuliani 22%
Condoleezza Rice 22%
John McCain 21%
Jeb Bush 11%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Bill Frist 3%
None (vol.) 3%
Unsure 11%

Betty the Crow and other bloggers are receiving this poll as if it tells us a great deal, but I don't buy the hype. Look at the margin of error: a 95% confidence that any single actual result for the Republican electorate lies within +/- 5.4 percentage points of the reported result for the D/H sample -- of only 326 Republicans! Jeb Bush's actual support among American Republicans could reasonably (within social science standards) be as high as 16.4%, and John McCain's actual support might reasonably fall as low as 15.6%. With those two overlapping, I cannot trust that there's a significant difference in support between them.

I know that we're all aching for information that tells us something about the 2008 race. But sometimes no information is better than bad information.

Welcome to Election 2008: Tracking the Race for President

Welcome to Election 2008: Tracking the Race for President. This is our inaugural post, so it may help to explain our goals.

To put it in ambitiously brief terms, we aim to become your go-to center for tracking the race for the White House in 2008. We follow the trends in all of the latest official polls in the 2008 race for the Presidency. We will also look at a candidate's performance in primaries when the time comes. Beyond that, however, we also look at atypical indicators of a presidential contender's likelihood of success in the quest to be president: Google ranking, technorati mentions, bumper sticker sales from multiple sources and even more. We do the tracking and gather the political information here so you can follow it with interested ease.

Our secondary aim is to provide links to resources so you can lend support to your presidential candidate of choice. We'll let you know where each candidate's official and unofficial websites are, and erect galleries of election 2008 bumper stickers, buttons, magnets, posters, postcards, and shirts to boot.

We're looking forward to getting started!